CCN Politics: Battleground Polls Show Tight Race Between Trump and Harris Across Key States
In the latest Wall Street Journal polling, former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris hold narrow leads across seven battleground states, indicating a close race as Election Day approaches.
Key State-by-State Insights:
- Michigan: Harris is slightly ahead of Trump with 47% to his 45%, according to the Wall Street Journal. This differs from Emerson’s earlier tie and Quinnipiac’s findings of a Trump lead. Harris maintains a slim 0.8-point advantage in FiveThirtyEight’s average.
- Pennsylvania: Trump has a narrow 46%-45% lead in the Wall Street Journal poll, while Harris leads 49%-46% in Quinnipiac’s poll. In the latest Emerson survey, Trump holds a 49%-48% edge. FiveThirtyEight’s polling average shows Harris up by 0.5 points.
- Wisconsin: Harris holds a one-point edge in the Journal poll, while Quinnipiac shows Trump with a slight lead at 48%-46%. The two are tied in Emerson’s findings. FiveThirtyEight’s average shows Harris up by 0.6 points.
- Arizona: Harris leads 47%-45% per the Wall Street Journal, but Trump holds a two-point lead in Emerson’s poll. FiveThirtyEight’s average has Trump ahead by 1.3 points.
- Georgia: Harris narrowly leads 46%-45% in the Journal poll, but Trump is ahead in Emerson’s poll at 49%-48%. FiveThirtyEight reflects a one-point lead for Trump in the state.
- Nevada: Trump holds a five-point lead according to the Journal. In contrast, the Emerson poll shows Harris ahead by a point. Harris is up by 0.8 points in FiveThirtyEight’s average.
- North Carolina: Trump leads Harris 46%-45% in the Wall Street Journal poll, flipping from a one-point lead for Harris in Emerson’s September survey. FiveThirtyEight’s average also shows Trump ahead by a point.
Big Picture:
Nationally, Real Clear Politics’ average places Harris two points ahead of Trump, while FiveThirtyEight shows her with a 2.5-point advantage.
Background:
Harris took over as the Democratic nominee after President Joe Biden withdrew on July 21, following a contentious debate performance. With this shift, the race has tightened significantly, especially in states Biden narrowly won in 2020.
Prediction:
Our projection estimates that Vice President Kamala Harris will secure a win over former President Donald Trump with 277 to 261 electoral college votes and be the next president of the United States. In a separate note, Trump will be sentenced to six years in prison by New York courts just weeks after this loss, in connection with his felony conviction of 34 counts.
The 2024 U.S. Presidential Election is scheduled for November 5, 2024. Today is October 11, 2024, so there are 25 days remaining until Election Day. Sign up to vote here.
